Gediminas Ziemelis : 2020 wrap up - $118.5 billion in aviation industry losses and the eager wait for salvation

2020 was supposed to be great for the aviation industry - the adoption of new technologies, AI integration, focus on sustainability seemed to make 2020 the year of development, improvement, and growth. The strong start of the year raised our hopes up that it will be a truly memorable year. Well, memorable it was, unfortunately, not in a positive way.

In the early spring, Covid-19 panic led countries to close the borders and ground thousands of airplanes in a dismal attempt to stop the virus from spreading globally. Unfortunately, even closed borders had little to no effect on stopping the spread of this resilient disease. Yet, thanks to that, the economies plummeted; thousands of people’s lives were left at stake. All of that with one misinformed, irrational step.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), only one every 27 million-air passengers gets COVID-19. The risk of disease transmission onboard is reduced to a minimum by a number of factors: modern aircraft airflow systems, High-Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters, and high rates of air exchange efficiently. While governments blamed air travel for the spread, health care experts claimed, that the infection risk is lower on a plane than in places such as stores and restaurants - HEPA filters capture 99.97% of airborne particles, substantially reducing the risk of viral spread, and the air in plane cabins is completely changed over 10 to 12 times per hour, raising the air quality above that of a normal building.

Regardless of the facts, passenger air travel is still blocked, continuing to damage countries' economies. According to IATA, the aviation industry alone is expected to suffer a net loss of $118.5 billion for 2020. Deep industry losses are thought to continue into 2021 with a net loss of $38.7 billion, even though performance is expected to improve over the period of the forecast. So now, while we count our losses, we patiently wait for the only possible salvation there is - vaccines.

Currently, 61 vaccines are in clinical trials on humans. Pfizer vaccine became the first to be approved for urgent use in a number of countries and brought a new challenge to the table - transportation. Pfizer vaccine requires shipments to be transported in near minus 70 degrees Celsius (-94°F) temperature, making only a small number of companies globally able to take on the operation. Other players in the vaccine race are slightly more forgiving with their transportation requirements - Moderna requires shipments to be held in -20°C (-4°F), while The University of Oxford vaccines would be the easiest to transport and can be stored in regular fridge temperatures of 2 to 8°C (35.6 to 46.4°F). Unfortunately, the temperature isn't the only problem at hand.

Accenture’s Seabury Consulting estimates the global rollout of a vaccine will generate 65,000 tons of airfreight, which is five times the air vaccine trade in 2019. Additionally, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), providing a single dose to 7.8 billion people would fill 8,000 747-cargo aircraft. That is something that the aviation industry cannot provide that easily.

The industry is already getting ready for the inevitable task of urgent vaccine transportation and chances are that the New Year will start on a positive note. Mass vaccination will help us all to get back to the life we were used to - spending time with families and friends, visiting breathtaking places, and experiencing new things. So, pack your bags for Q2 2021, because the aviation industry will be getting back to business.