ACMI may offer airlines the fastest path to rebuilding capacity after the fuel shock

The aviation industry has spent much of 2026 cutting capacity in response to soaring fuel costs. With disruption to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushing jet fuel prices to a projected average of $152 per barrel, nearly 70% above 2025 levels, airlines have suspended routes, grounded aircraft and reduced operations across their networks.

As markets begin to stabilize, however, a different challenge is emerging. The issue is no longer how quickly airlines can reduce capacity, but how quickly they can rebuild it.

"Rising fuel costs have put significant pressure on airlines' profitability and forced many carriers to make difficult decisions," says Dainius Staniulis, Chief Commercial Officer at Avion Express. "But cutting capacity is sometimes easier than rebuilding it. Aircraft can be grounded quickly, while restoring crews, aircraft and operations takes considerably longer."

For many carriers, restoring capacity through traditional fleet expansion is unlikely to be a quick option. According to industry data, the global aircraft order backlog reached more than 18,000 aircraft in May 2026, while delivery rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Even when aircraft become available, airlines still face the challenge of bringing crews back, securing permits, restoring ground handling arrangements and re-establishing operational readiness.

"When an airline sheds capacity under pressure, it rarely sheds it cleanly," Staniulis explains. "Returning to those markets requires re-establishing every operational link in the chain. Aircraft are only one piece of the puzzle."

Why ACMI is becoming increasingly relevant

Against this backdrop, ACMI (Aircraft, Crew, Maintenance and Insurance) leasing is attracting renewed attention as a way for airlines to restore capacity without waiting months or years for fleet expansion plans to materialize.

Under an ACMI arrangement, airlines gain access to a fully operational aircraft together with certified crews, maintenance support and insurance coverage. Rather than rebuilding every component internally, carriers can add capacity almost immediately while limiting long-term financial commitments during uncertain market conditions.

This flexibility has become increasingly valuable as airlines attempt to balance recovering demand with ongoing operational and geopolitical uncertainty. According to IATA's April 2026 survey, passenger demand remains resilient, with 41% of respondents intending to travel more over the next year and 52% expecting to maintain their current travel habits. At the same time, airlines are forecast to fill a record 84% of available seats globally, reflecting strong demand despite recent capacity reductions.

"The challenge is that demand can recover much faster than operational capacity," says Staniulis. "Rehiring crews, securing aircraft and restoring networks is a much slower process."

Speed matters as much as fleet size

One of ACMI's key advantages is response time. Avion Express maintains standby crews at several European locations, allowing aircraft to be deployed at short notice when operational disruptions or sudden capacity needs arise. In certain circumstances, aircraft can be positioned and operated within hours of a request being confirmed.

"The infrastructure that makes a fast turnaround possible: crew positioning, ground handling contracts and permit processes has to be built continuously, not assembled on demand," says Staniulis. "When the call comes, the preparation is already done."

For airlines working to rebuild their networks, this ability to access operational capacity quickly can help bridge the gap between immediate market demand and longer-term fleet planning.

The real test comes after the crisis

The fuel shock has demonstrated how quickly airlines can be forced to reduce capacity when market conditions deteriorate. The challenge is how quickly they can bring it back.

For ACMI providers, the past months have reinforced the importance of maintaining flexible fleets, operational readiness and the ability to respond quickly.

"The crisis has made ACMI visible in a way that stable conditions rarely do," says Staniulis. "But flexibility only works if it is already there when the market needs it."

As airlines begin restoring routes and rebuilding networks, the industry's biggest constraint may no longer be demand or even fuel prices, but access to capacity itself. In a market where new aircraft can take years to arrive, the ability to deploy operational capacity within days, or even hours, may become one of the defining factors of a successful recovery.