The Pilot Shortage Paradox: Why Many Cadets Still Struggle to Get Their First Airline Job

The aviation industry continues to warn about a growing need for pilots. Boeing forecasts that commercial aviation will require 674,000 new pilots over the next two decades, driven by fleet growth and workforce attrition.

Yet for many newly qualified Commercial Pilot Licence (CPL) holders, the reality feels very different, as competition for entry-level First Officer positions remains intense, despite persistent pilot shortage forecasts.

So why are airlines struggling to find pilots while aspiring First Officers are struggling to find jobs?

The answer lies in a misunderstanding of what today's pilot shortage actually looks like.

There Is No Single Pilot Job Market

The term pilot shortage often suggests a single, industry-wide problem. In reality, commercial aviation consists of multiple labour markets, each driven by different operational needs, fleet strategies and hiring priorities.

According to Julius Norkunas, CEO of aviation recruitment platform AviationCV, the supply of newly trained pilots and current airline demand are out of sync.

“Flight academies continue producing cadets at a steady pace, but airline demand has not increased accordingly,” says Norkunas. “Aircraft delivery delays mean fleets are not growing as planned, while high fuel prices have pushed some carriers to park aircraft. As a result, airlines are often able to manage with the pilots they already have.”

This pressure is visible in aircraft delivery data. According to IATA’s June 2026 outlook, deliveries were approximately 5,600 aircraft below the pre-pandemic trend, while the global order backlog reached 18,100 aircraft in May 2026 – equivalent to almost 60% of the active fleet. These constraints can postpone the recruitment and training intended to support airline fleet expansion.

When airlines do recruit, safety and insurance requirements can lead them to favour experienced pilots over newly qualified pilots, as they require less additional training.

“The long-term shortage forecasts are real, but they describe the next two decades, not today's job market for a low-hour First Officer,” Norkunas adds.

Demand Shifts Between Regions and Aircraft Types

Pilot demand also shifts between regions as airlines respond to geopolitical developments and changing operating conditions.

“Overall, demand is fairly balanced across regions, but recent geopolitical developments have shifted activity,” says Norkunas. “The crisis in the Middle East put recruitment among Gulf carriers on pause for several months, but we are now seeing the region recover as airlines resume activity and work to attract pilots again. At the same time, the uncertainty pushed some pilots back to Europe, adding to the available supply there.”

Aircraft type is another important factor. AviationCV data show strong demand for both First Officers and Captains on the Airbus A320 family and Boeing 737, but the clearest growth trend is in the widebody market.

“Leading carriers are increasingly building their fleets around the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777,” says Norkunas. “With new widebody aircraft arriving, particularly in the Gulf, airlines are competing to attract experienced pilots from leading European and Asian carriers. The biggest mismatch today isn't in overall numbers, but in experience and type qualifications. Demand consistently outstrips supply for highly skilled, type-rated pilots, particularly on widebodies, and that gap will only widen.”

Airlines Are Looking Beyond Basics

Meeting regulatory requirements remains the foundation of every airline career, but securing a first airline job requires more than technical flying ability. Additional credentials and certifications, simulator assessments, behavioural interviews, Crew Resource Management (CRM), decision-making, communication, and overall professionalism are integral parts of many airline selection processes.

According to Stian Skaar, Head of Training at BAA Training, a strong profile on paper does not automatically make someone a strong airline candidate.

“Holding a CPL isn’t enough anymore. Airlines – particularly low-cost carriers in Europe – increasingly prefer candidates with additional qualifications such as the Airline Pilot Standards Multi-Crew Cooperation Course (APS MCC). It develops the technical and non-technical skills expected of today’s pilots,” says Skaar.

This preference is already reflected in airline recruitment criteria. Ryanair states that cadet applicants who have completed APS MCC training are given preference during initial selection and have a distinct advantage during the interview and assessment process. At the time of writing, British Airways also listed APS MCC as a requirement for its Speedbird Self-Sponsored Pathway campaign.

Many candidates focus heavily on obtaining their licence and building flight hours but devote less attention to airline selection. Simulator assessments, behavioural interviews, operator research and non-technical competencies are often overlooked until the first assessment invitation arrives.

What Helps Candidates Stand Out

Airline-oriented courses, like APS MCC, can help bridge the gap between obtaining a licence and entering commercial operations. Such training exposes CPL holders to airline-standard procedures, realistic simulator scenarios and Crew Resource Management (CRM) before they begin applying for First Officer positions. At BAA Training, this approach extends beyond helping cadets obtain their licences. The focus is also on preparing them for airline selection and the operational mindset expected on the flight deck.

“Ultimately, our goal isn't simply to graduate licensed pilots," says Skaar. “It's to help them become pilots who are ready to succeed in an airline recruitment process, transition confidently into commercial operations, and ensure overall aviation safety and standards.”

The Shortage Is Real, but So Is the Competition

The pilot shortage is therefore not a contradiction but a question of timing and qualification. Long-term forecasts point to substantial demand across commercial aviation, while today’s recruitment decisions are shaped by immediate fleet requirements, regional conditions, aircraft types and the availability of experienced pilots.

For aspiring First Officers, waiting for the forecast shortage to translate automatically into job offers is not a strategy. A CPL opens the door, but candidates still need to understand where demand exists, prepare for airline-specific selection and develop the technical and non-technical skills required to transition into commercial operations.